Process
A process built to be repeated.
Brilliance is unreliable; discipline is not. Every idea we own has passed the same steps, in the same order, with the numbers rebuilt from primary sources. The point is a result that is consistent, not intermittently inspired.
The research pipeline
From ten thousand names to a handful of convictions.
- 01
Sourcing & screening
Systematic screens run across thousands of names to surface the few that earn, or could earn, high returns on capital.
- 02
Fundamental forensics
We read the filings line by line, rebuilding leverage, margins, and capital intensity from primary sources rather than the summary.
- 03
ROIC & reinvestment runway
The two questions that decide everything: are the returns durable, and can the business redeploy capital at the same rates?
- 04
Intrinsic valuation
We value the business through the cycle, with every assumption stated on the page and stress-tested against a worse world.
- 05
Conviction & sizing
Size follows conviction and downside, never momentum. Each holding has to earn its place against every other.
- 06
Ownership & monitoring
We hold like owners and track the thesis against reality, with explicit falsifiers that tell us when we are wrong.
The bar
What every idea has to survive.
Downside first
We size to what we can lose, not what we hope to make. A position earns its weight from the strength of its floor, never from momentum or a good story.
Stated assumptions
Every input to a valuation is written on the page and stress-tested against a worse world. If a thesis only works in the good case, it is not a thesis.
Explicit falsifiers
Before we buy, we write down what would prove us wrong. When reality trips a falsifier, we act on the evidence rather than argue with it.
Owning the analysis
Slower than quoting the Street. Also the only way to truly own a view.
Rebuilding leverage, margins, and capital intensity from the primary filings takes longer than repeating a consensus estimate. It is also what lets us hold a position through volatility without flinching.
When you have built the number yourself, a noisy quarter is information, not instruction. The work done up front is what buys the patience later.